As the first month of the year comes to a close, it’s perhaps a good time to take stock of how one is progressing, right? Not only that, but preliminary industry sales data are also in, so we have some numbers to work with.

So as expected, total sales last year exceeded $400 billion for the first time, and we hit a third straight record. Where are we headed from here? There are some who think the sky’s the limit. We recall one insurance executive saying $800 billion is within reach. That’s a mighty big number.

Which brings me to today’s theme, which is, can we come up with a term or catchphrase for the current state of the annuity business, something that vividly describes the tenor of the times? Or is it too early to do that? It’s often the case that periods in history get their defining terms later, after some perspective is gained.

How about the record numbers of years past? I would argue the $257 billion the industry reached in 2007 could be called the height of the “arms race” period, when variable annuity sales were fueled by guaranteed living benefits. In the following year there was another record, of $265 billion, which I would call a “post-financial crisis boom” in which sales went the other way – namely into fixed annuities, for their perceived safety.

From 2008-2020, total sales averaged around $230 billion and hit a low of $203.5 billion in 2017. Is there a term for this period? I think those years were marked by what I’ve called “secular de-risking,” (the weaning off of benefits and even the departure of some former leading companies) yet perhaps there’s a more colorful way to put it.

So back to the present, where we seem to have an “embarrassment of riches,” and one could argue that higher-than-usual interest rates have been a huge factor in that. Fixed and indexed annuities have been ascendant, although RILAs are very much part of the boom as well. Maybe “rate run-up” could so as a start?

All I know is that we are certainly not in a “goldilocks market” for annuities at the moment. And I think 2025 will tell us a lot about whether sales will remain as hot as cakes just off the griddle – or perhaps start to cool, at least a bit.